BY CHANDRA K. MITTAL
On January 20, 2017 once Donald Trump is “officially” sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, he will be tested for his KSAs, i.e. knowledge, skills and abilities to solve national problems, resolve international conflicts, and deliver on the tall election promises he made in the campaign. He will be scrutinized every step of the way...
On January 20, 2017 once Donald Trump is “officially” sworn in as the 45th President of the United States, he will be tested for his KSAs, i.e. knowledge, skills and abilities to solve national problems, resolve international conflicts, and deliver on the tall election promises he made in the campaign. He will be scrutinized every step of the way...
government agencies, and the American public. He will be equally assessed by overseas friends and adversaries with interest for... his impulses, instincts and reaction towards hotspots in the world. There is obviously high expectation from Donald Trump to fulfill his election promises as his loyalists and supporters look forward to a speedy reversal of their so called “miseries” accrued under the Obama Presidency, and their deliverance from the “bondage” as it were, of low personal incomes, unemployment or underemployment, unaffordable healthcare, assault on their sovereignty, illegal immigrants, and lack of their neighborhood security. Besides the domestic ills, President-Elect Trump also promised to fix all the “wrongs” overseas and radically change America’s direction or posture in foreign relations as it relates to international trade, relationships with friends and adversaries, environmental over-regulation, international security alliances, etc. He also boldly committed to withdrawing from the multinational “Iranian Nuclear Deal”, impose heavy tariffs on imports of foreign-manufactured goods from countries like China, Mexico, etc.
On the immigration front, Donald Trump has repeatedly committed to building a wall on the US southern border with Mexico, deport illegal aliens from the US, and severely restrict the immigration of foreigners into the US, most especially from the Islamic countries that are in the grip of terrorism and political instability.
Simply put, President-Elect Donald Trump promised to Americans a “paradise” to get their vote. Now, past January 20th 2017, he will have to start redeeming his promises to the American people who, figuratively speaking, sold their all possessions to bet on Donald Trump, an inexperienced and unknown political entity. This was unprecedented in the two hundred forty year old history of the United States. But he sold himself to be the only person to save America from “all” political ills that sound it.
While it is early and premature to start looking at the crystal ball to predict the future, some of the post-election rhetoric from President-Elect has nevertheless begun to mallow down, modify or reverse. Two significant examples of his vacillation are his changed stand on the Obamacare where he now proposes to continue with inclusion of preexisting conditions and allow parents to carry children on their policies till their 20s.The other being his much touted deportation of illegal aliens from the United States. Pre-election, this number was estimated to be about 12 Million. Now, he says it will be much less than that. It is quite likely this number may get completely eliminated in the future.
On the domestic front, one of the major challenges of President-Elect Trump will be his ability to work in consonant with the US Congress to enable him to implement his agenda in harmony with the US Constitution. Mr. Trump himself has no previous experience in the formulation or implementation of public policy. So, he is likely to face major conflicts between his populistic promises and what can actually pass the Congressional muster. This disconnect between the two could make him lose face with the American people. Similarly, his challenges in foreign trade and security alliances appear insurmountable. He promised to bring back manufacturing jobs from China, Mexico and other countries. For this to occur, he will have to retract and reverse existing trade agreements with these countries. This will cause major economic upheaval with global implication since today’s economy is widely integration. It is hard to imagine that such multidimensional trade agreements can be scrapped and reversed at a flick of the finger as Donald Trump made out to be before election.
During the campaign Donald Trump also criticized and complained about security alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, etc. costing American tax-payers too much with nothing in return. So, he promised to reverse these to reap financial benefits. But this may not be feasible to do for more than one reason. Countries generally operate on the “barter” philosophy in international security-relationships in the interest of long-term broader mutual benefit instead of direct financial benefit. For President Trump to undo the existing security alliances overseas could isolate America in the world. This may also compel partners to seek alternate alliances with other countries including adversaries jeopardizing American security.
Thus, because of various limitations, conflicts and incompatibilities between governing realities and his election promises, President Trump will face major challenges in fully delivering them. But, as a political compulsion, he will have to find some winners on some substantive issues to preserve his credibility with the American people and build his legacy he as seems to have already embarked upon. Even before his inauguration there are some signs appearing on the horizon that he has begun to make good on some promises. For example, he has reportedly prevented the flight of some 800 American manufacturing jobs to Mexico. Similarly, he has reached out to some foreign leaders including leaders of Japan, Israel, Taiwan, etc. to build constructive international relationships. But these are all symbolic moves for now. The actual heavy lifting awaits him to take the office, looks over the spreadsheet of America’s governing map, and engage in contentious national and international issues.
What is more likely to occur is the watered-down version of several of his promises. In the domestic arena some of these likely to be reductions in personal and corporate tax cuts, modifications of some provisions of Obamacare (but no repeal), relaxation of environmental regulation to promote industry, increase in manufacturing jobs, targeted inner-city community development, improved border security on the US-Mexican border by physical barriers and better surveillance, deportation or incarceration of criminal aliens, and legalization (but not deportation) of non-criminal illegal aliens.
On the foreign trade front he will negotiate China to extract additional concessions in bilateral trade but not eliminate it, renegotiate NAFTA to make it more favorable to US, and modify Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with higher bilateral emphasis. He may also increase economic incentives for US export industry. He will continue to maintain strong bonds with NATO and will seek an accommodation and balanced partnerships (not confrontation) with Russia and Middle East to maintain global peace and control terrorism. Given that politics is the art of impossible, these accomplishments would earn him a good report card from the American people, and would possibly constitute a significant step towards “Making America Great Again” - the sole purpose of Donald Trump to seek the highest office in the land, the Presidency of the United States.
(Mittal is Professor at Houston Community College and Co-Founder of Indo-American Association)
On the immigration front, Donald Trump has repeatedly committed to building a wall on the US southern border with Mexico, deport illegal aliens from the US, and severely restrict the immigration of foreigners into the US, most especially from the Islamic countries that are in the grip of terrorism and political instability.
Simply put, President-Elect Donald Trump promised to Americans a “paradise” to get their vote. Now, past January 20th 2017, he will have to start redeeming his promises to the American people who, figuratively speaking, sold their all possessions to bet on Donald Trump, an inexperienced and unknown political entity. This was unprecedented in the two hundred forty year old history of the United States. But he sold himself to be the only person to save America from “all” political ills that sound it.
While it is early and premature to start looking at the crystal ball to predict the future, some of the post-election rhetoric from President-Elect has nevertheless begun to mallow down, modify or reverse. Two significant examples of his vacillation are his changed stand on the Obamacare where he now proposes to continue with inclusion of preexisting conditions and allow parents to carry children on their policies till their 20s.The other being his much touted deportation of illegal aliens from the United States. Pre-election, this number was estimated to be about 12 Million. Now, he says it will be much less than that. It is quite likely this number may get completely eliminated in the future.
On the domestic front, one of the major challenges of President-Elect Trump will be his ability to work in consonant with the US Congress to enable him to implement his agenda in harmony with the US Constitution. Mr. Trump himself has no previous experience in the formulation or implementation of public policy. So, he is likely to face major conflicts between his populistic promises and what can actually pass the Congressional muster. This disconnect between the two could make him lose face with the American people. Similarly, his challenges in foreign trade and security alliances appear insurmountable. He promised to bring back manufacturing jobs from China, Mexico and other countries. For this to occur, he will have to retract and reverse existing trade agreements with these countries. This will cause major economic upheaval with global implication since today’s economy is widely integration. It is hard to imagine that such multidimensional trade agreements can be scrapped and reversed at a flick of the finger as Donald Trump made out to be before election.
During the campaign Donald Trump also criticized and complained about security alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, etc. costing American tax-payers too much with nothing in return. So, he promised to reverse these to reap financial benefits. But this may not be feasible to do for more than one reason. Countries generally operate on the “barter” philosophy in international security-relationships in the interest of long-term broader mutual benefit instead of direct financial benefit. For President Trump to undo the existing security alliances overseas could isolate America in the world. This may also compel partners to seek alternate alliances with other countries including adversaries jeopardizing American security.
Thus, because of various limitations, conflicts and incompatibilities between governing realities and his election promises, President Trump will face major challenges in fully delivering them. But, as a political compulsion, he will have to find some winners on some substantive issues to preserve his credibility with the American people and build his legacy he as seems to have already embarked upon. Even before his inauguration there are some signs appearing on the horizon that he has begun to make good on some promises. For example, he has reportedly prevented the flight of some 800 American manufacturing jobs to Mexico. Similarly, he has reached out to some foreign leaders including leaders of Japan, Israel, Taiwan, etc. to build constructive international relationships. But these are all symbolic moves for now. The actual heavy lifting awaits him to take the office, looks over the spreadsheet of America’s governing map, and engage in contentious national and international issues.
What is more likely to occur is the watered-down version of several of his promises. In the domestic arena some of these likely to be reductions in personal and corporate tax cuts, modifications of some provisions of Obamacare (but no repeal), relaxation of environmental regulation to promote industry, increase in manufacturing jobs, targeted inner-city community development, improved border security on the US-Mexican border by physical barriers and better surveillance, deportation or incarceration of criminal aliens, and legalization (but not deportation) of non-criminal illegal aliens.
On the foreign trade front he will negotiate China to extract additional concessions in bilateral trade but not eliminate it, renegotiate NAFTA to make it more favorable to US, and modify Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with higher bilateral emphasis. He may also increase economic incentives for US export industry. He will continue to maintain strong bonds with NATO and will seek an accommodation and balanced partnerships (not confrontation) with Russia and Middle East to maintain global peace and control terrorism. Given that politics is the art of impossible, these accomplishments would earn him a good report card from the American people, and would possibly constitute a significant step towards “Making America Great Again” - the sole purpose of Donald Trump to seek the highest office in the land, the Presidency of the United States.
(Mittal is Professor at Houston Community College and Co-Founder of Indo-American Association)
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