BY KRITTIVAS  MUKHERJEE

NEW DELHI - India’s main opposition BJP-led alliance is struggling to unite and find new partners in potentially swing states, possibly damaging its chances of winning a general election only weeks away. One party has left the BJP-led NDA and other allies are bargaining hard for more electoral seats as a condition for staying in the grouping.

The two national parties, the ruling Congress and the BJP, only won around a quarter of votes each in the last 2004 general election, so their ability to secure coalitions with regional and caste-based parties will be key to forming a government.

“The BJP is in a vulnerable situation,” said political analyst Pran Chopra.

The NDA, which has L.K. Advani as its Prime Ministerial candidate and is seen as pro-business, will fight Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s ruling Congress-led coalition in the vote starting Apr. 16.

In theory, the BJP should do well, given a slowing economy that has claimed millions of jobs and a vulnerable security situation highlighted by the Mumbai attacks in November when at least 180 people were killed by militant gunmen.

Incumbents also traditionally fare badly in Indian elections.

But the BJP lost an old ally, the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, over differences in seat sharing. The regional group wanted to run for more seats to the national Parliament than the BJP was willing to give.

Another partner, the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, is threatening to leave the NDA over the same issue of seat sharing.

The Shiv Sena, a more hardline Hindu group that is another old ally in Maharashtra, is bargaining hard and has not yet sealed a pre-poll deal.

In contrast, the Congress party appears to have kept most of its partners from the 2004 vote.

A REPEAT OF 2004?
The NDA lost the last election partly on its failure in states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. So far it has made little headway into securing new alliances in these states. “The BJP seems to be declining in its ability to build an alliance,” said Chopra.

The party rose to prominence in the early 1990s on the back of a Hindu revivalist movement and ruled from 1998 to 2004 promoting economic reforms. But it suffered a shock 2004 election defeat after its “India shining” slogan failed to resonate with voters.

In a brief sign of recovery, the BJP won state elections in early 2008, but then lost two state polls in Rajasthan and Delhi.

Since then, the BJP has struggled to convince many regional parties it is a viable alternative to Congress. Its platform of stronger security and calls for Hindu revivalism have not resonated with voters, analysts say.

“What is the party’s political message? It’s not the economic model, it’s not the power-sharing strategy,” said political commentator Mahesh Rangarajan. “The party is in flux.”

A party and its allies need 272 members to rule in the 545-member lower House of Parliament.            (Reuters)